Bull City Mutterings

INCENSED

2008-10-02T07:41:00.008-04:00

I’m incensed that Raleigh interests are meddling in Durham’s consideration of a proposed prepared food tax. Without questioning their motives, as Durham voters we just don’t need them to tell us how to vote.

Raleigh has had this tax since ’92. For a Raleigh resident to form and fund an organization called Durham Citizens Against The Food Tax seems insidious no matter who is “strapped to the front bumper.” While they have picked up the issue of regressivity, long disproven, there are still legitimate viewpoints on all sides. But Durham voters are perfectly able to sort through a full discussion of the issues without outsiders meddling and fogging the issues.

The discussion at the People’s Alliance resulting in that organization’s endorsement of the referendum is an excellent example of Durham’s ability for passionate, intelligent debate. But this Raleigh based so-called “Durham Citizens” group is betting that the news media will never have the resources to dig down and reveal it for what it is…or that even if it does, Durham voters will be so confused they will vote based on a smokescreen.

It reminds me of when Raleigh interests tried to steal the Bulls and move them to Raleigh (ironically intending to use Wake County’s meals tax which never did have voter approval). Significant Raleigh resources were deployed to help narrowly defeat a Durham bond issue to build a new stadium.

This type of interference from outside the community, especially from neighbors who are part of the Triangle family is arrogant, condescending and an insult to Durham residents.

Why shouldn’t Durham residents have the right to consider asking Raleigh residents working in Durham (3 out of 5 jobs are held by non-resident commuters) to shoulder a tax Raleigh has asked us to pay for the last 15 years when we dine out there.

Back off Raleigh. Last time I checked you don’t get to vote here.

THE ACCIDENTAL CAREER

2008-09-30T08:39:00.008-04:00

On occasion I get asked how I found my career, specifically, how I found something in which I could work my entire life so far. The truth is, I backed into it.

As an undergraduate student at Brigham Young University, I got a part-time job inventorying the physical plant or all of the buildings on campus. I hated it for reasons I don’t recall.

Lesson learned: It taught me the importance of conducting an inventory and I’ve incorporated that basic step throughout my career in destination or community marketing. It also taught me how an engineer’s mind works.

I don’t remember how but in a few weeks, I landed in the Office of Tours and Conferences. In those days, the two summer school sessions weren’t enough to keep people employed in departments responsible for “housing” and “foodservice” so our office promoted and facilitated scores of week-long “youth” conferences. Big perk – supervising the President’s box at football games.

Lessons learned: Event coordination and facilitation, business travel, inter-agency politics, branding and development of marketing tools and my first real life experiences at management.

When I graduated, I made my way to law school but I was married and had a baby daughter so I needed a full time job so I could go to school at night. I landed in a chamber of commerce department that had been dormant for years and unbeknownst to me at the time had its own board of directors. As I came on board during its resurrection, it was separating to become an independent organization as all but 3% of DMO’s are today.

Lessons learned: Community marketing, my first big missteps in management, rough house and very personal politics…and that unless I could be on the Supreme Court, I didn’t much like the study or practice of law and personally, the personal loss inherent in some career decisions.

Big lesson: That this work, community marketing, is important, exciting, challenging and that I was good at it.

So when I say I need to detox before I decide what to do next, I mean two things. One, obviously after nearly 40 years, destination marketing is a passion and somewhat addictive and I need to clear my head and two, I might just back into what I do in the next phase of my life.

WILL EVERYTHING GO SELF SERVE?

2008-09-29T08:00:00.004-04:00

With half of all adults having worked in restaurants during their lives and 1 in 3 having their first job in one, you would think we’d have a better sense of the of the following projections in the 2008 Restaurant Industry Forecast:

Culinary arts are already a key part of why Durham is distinct.

Restaurant jobs are growing at three times overall the rate of all jobs nationwide.

Restaurants will add 2 million new jobs by 2018.

Demand for chefs and head cooks will increase by 16% over 10 years.

Restaurants account for 1 in 5 jobs added to the economy annual.

Foodservice managers will increase 11% in the next 10 years.

So it is great that a portion of the proposed prepared food tax on the referendum will go to hospitality workforce training if it passes in November. Things like the award winning Durham Careers In Hospitality program in Durham Public Schools and NCCU’s newly accredited Hospitality Degree Program are already up and prepared to expand. Restaurants will need to be competitive for labor because the labor pool coming of age will shrink by 7%.

HALLELUJAH - NO HIDDEN FEES

2008-09-26T07:31:00.006-04:00

I love this site and the Southwest Airlines philosophy about no hidden fees. Now if they could do one with Leonard Cohen’s version of Hallelujah:-)

I’m not in their shoes to judge but I fear airlines have forgotten what led to the demise of the railroads. It wasn’t just that freeways became commonplace. It was because they forgot they were in the “experience” business, not just the “transportation” business.

Southwest gets it.

THE ONE TRUE CHURCH

2008-09-25T07:50:00.006-04:00

Religions often claim to be the one true church or faith. Any one of them might be right for all I know but they can’t all be right and the notion is genius. It has the effect of locking people into an “all or nothing” perspective.

Reminds me of what my Dad would often say if I disagreed with him politically… “why don’t you move to Russia then” or “you just as well jump off a bridge.”

While I have a deep personal faith, for 30 years now, I haven’t overtly practiced formal or structured religion like the one in which I was raised. But deep down, major parts of that belief system is still a part of me.

I was also Republican when I grew up because my Mother and Father were…until I learned that in my past there had been Republicans who leaned toward FDR and Democrats who admired Dwight D. Eisenhower (not only as President but a great Grandfather figure growing up) and that I could pick and choose parts of both or be an Independent.

Political action committees, political parties, nationalism, regionalism, “being true to your school“, etc. can also have the effect of being the “one true church.” Meaning, they seem like tribal affiliations that help a lot of people make quick, all or nothing decisions…like straight ticket voting.

Very efficient when you think about it. But they seem to breed ideologues, who put being consistent above thinking.

And that’s where it breaks down for me…when people start to think “all or nothing.” Either you buy into every precept of the group or you don’t and then you’re unfaithful. So that if one precept is challenged, it has the effect of challenging an entire belief system.

This leads people or forces them to choose between a right to hunt or banning assault weapons or handguns in certain jurisdictions where they are a big problem and hunting isn’t the issue at all.

It forces people to choose between right to life and quality of life. Or to believe a 1 cent tax on prepared meals is regressive so if you are for it, you must not care about social and economic justice.

These belief systems worry me when they become controlling…when you’re either on my team or you’re not…when they chill debate and critical thinking vs. serve as a context to ask questions.

SOCIAL ENTERPRISE

2008-09-24T08:00:00.006-04:00

DCVB doesn’t have an annual meeting per se. Instead, we produce the Durham Annual Tribute Luncheon.

The next one, April 29th, will be unique because it will be held on the stage of the new Durham Performing Arts Center. Each year the ATL honors individuals or groups that significantly contribute to shaping Durham’s unique brand and sense of place.

Durham is a caring community and one aspect of the brand has been shaped by innovative groups or organizations that have used earned income to forward social purposes. They are non-profits often categorized as social enterprise or social capitalists. The honorees on April 29, listed below, are emblematic of many others and have earned national reputations both for social enterprise and for Durham:

Eno River Association
TROSA
Self Help
SEEDS
Latino Community Credit Union
UDI
Duke-Durham Neighborhood Partnership
SFJ Ventures

YANKEE STADIUM

2008-09-23T09:02:00.000-04:00

Watching the ceremonies and game commentary surrounding the last game in Yankee Stadium revealed just how important sense of place is.

Personally, I felt a twinge of loss and melancholy. Yankee Stadium and the Yankees represented a serious connection between my Father and me. Through all that made us different as I grew up, we could always talk about the Yankees and the “House that Ruth Built.”

Until yesterday I didn’t realize Yankee Stadium was built the year after my Father was born (he passed away in 2001, just a few weeks after 9/11.) It felt like a part of him died all over again.

I’m sure the replica across the street in the Bronx will be a sight to see. And it will earn its owners more millions from fancy skyboxes, etc.

But to the majority of fans, current and former players and managers and sports broadcasters, it will never replace what will disappear when the real Yankee Stadium is torn down girder by girder.

Not everything old is valuable. But unfortunately the profit motive rarely makes a distinction until it is too late or unless significant historic tax credits can be leveraged.

WAFFLE HOUSE

2008-09-22T07:55:00.000-04:00

I stopped by the Waffle House down near Fayetteville Road and NC 54 on Sunday. I was in that area on an errand. I sat at the counter.

It is a joy to watch a team committed to customer service. Every person working that morning shift was energized, welcoming, engaging and spirited.

They were talking politely to one another as they called orders. Pouring coffee for people who were waiting for a table, joking and laughing and enjoying their work without skipping a beat. Everyone there at one time or another made eye contact and without being intrusive, radiated a joy for people and their work.

Food was good too. You can build big buildings, grand plazas and cathedrals but in the end impressions created by bricks and mortar don’t last. Genuine customer service does.

DURHAM'S IMAGE NATIONWIDE

2008-09-18T14:52:00.011-04:00

A friend interrupted me recently to say that “her daughter works in New York and Durham has such a horrible image, she may never move back here to live.”

Anecdotal horror stories like that drive a person like me nuts, especially when they don’t understand why that is a horrible way to inform marketing strategies. It led us years ago to ask, exactly how many associates have a negative image of Durham or is it just a virulent few? How did they come by those impressions? How representative are they of the population as a whole?

I’m told that when DCVB initiated periodic national surveys in 1995 to benchmark Durham’s image, it was the first to do so. I don’t know about that. Seems a very obvious approach to me. Why jump around based on what may be a very few opinions when you can easily just ask a generalizable part of the entire nation.

According to the most recent survey done last week by Opinion Research Corporation, Durham has an increasingly strong image nationwide:

Nationwide, by a margin of 9 to 1, adults have a positive image of Durham overall. Just 3% are negative, which is only one point higher than communities in North Carolina with the best image overall and half that of most others.

Nearly half of those who are aware of Durham are positive about Durham, including 15% who are very positive.

Since polling and marketing began, awareness of Durham has been increased by 25%, negatives reduced by 2/3rds and the positive to negative ratio has tripled.

At a ratio of 16 to 1, Durham’s image nationwide is highest as a place with many cultural, educational and entertainment features, up nearly 8 fold since 1995.

At 14 to 1, Durham’s image as a place with new business and growth potential is second highest, up almost 5 times.

There is still plenty of work to do, though. Awareness still needs to be created for about 4 out of 10 while insulating them from confusing things like 1) misattribution of Durham assets to other communities like Raleigh, 2) inferences that Durham is a suburb of Raleigh caused by misuse or misunderstanding of the airport name and 3) the undercurrent of negativity fueled by 10-12% of adults living in nearby communities.

Oh, and most of all, Durham faces the same persistent stereotypes of the South (think of the movie Deliverance) that are faced by nearly all communities in this diverse and varied part of the country.

"IT'S NOT BOB EVANS"

2008-09-12T11:45:00.002-04:00

A comment from a friend often crosses my mind. His mother had visited him from Indiana in a great neighborhood where he lived for a time in Portland, OR. It was one of those places you see at the bottom corner of a historic building with a long bar on one side and rows of tables down the window sides.

After a wonderful brunch, as he signed the check, his mom leaned back and said “this is good but it isn’t Bob Evans.” I enjoy a breakfast at Bob Evans here in Durham regularly but her comment always reminds me that there are people who travel great distances not to do something unique but to do something they do at home or maybe anywhere for that matter.

The vast majority of travelers however are looking for something unique. Not as Richard Florida writes, “world-class” but something indigenous and almost temporal to the destination community they are visiting. It may be a performing artist they could see anywhere but it is in a uniquely Durham surrounding.

Kind of like the Durham Bulls. Not the only baseball team or MiLB baseball team, not “Bob Evans” but uniquely Durham.

As we get ready to open the spectacular, new Durham Performing Arts Center and join several hundred cities where shows tour after succeeding in the "Big Apple"…we can’t forget how crucial it is to work even harder to sustain other Durham theaters unique to Durham’s “quality of place,” like The Carolina, St. Joseph’s, Man Bites Dog, Baldwin, Common Ground, Page, PSI to name just a handful.

For several years, after DPAC's opening we must remember how much harder it will be for each of them to draw sponsorhips, media attention, audience, volunteers and other resources.

BUCKING "SPACE RACE," DURHAM WINNING WITH A SMALL LINEUP AND GREAT ASSETS

2008-09-10T16:36:00.002-04:00

In pursuit of the 11% of overnight travelers attending conventions and meetings, cities have added 40 million square feet of new convention center space; more than 22 million in the last 10 years alone, with another 8 million in the pipeline by the end of the decade.

What many affectionately call a “space race” to keep up with other cities, the massive increase in supply, has created intense competition for a segment growing 2.5% growth annually but falling as a proportion of overall travel. To many, the race is responsible for perpetuating low occupancies and expensive concessions to draw groups.

Groups that measure convention center expansions believe the two decade building explosion may be coming to an end; particularly signaling the end of the mega-centers of 500,000 square feet plus.

Project currently in the pipeline average less than 170,000 square feet. Trade Show Weekly speculates that the trend is moving from major convention centers to hotels with convention space, or to smaller more specialized, centers with emphasis on technology, especially in second and third tier cities like all but one in North Carolina.

Durham already exceeds its fair share of conventions and meetings (15% vs. 11%) following a trend termed “going with a small lineup”, to use a basketball metaphor. And just as in basketball, the small lineup can work because 1) the average convention registration is just less than 1,500 with overall attendance just over 2,000, 2) 23% meet in the Southeast on any given year and 3) 24% use convention centers.

So while communities with mega-facilities battle it out over a smaller slice of the pie, communities like Durham meet or exceed fair share with a small lineup by hosting an average of 5,000 conventions and meetings a year or 400 a month.

It really depends on the community’s goals and aspirations. Durham seeks 1) a balance of leisure and business and 2) to meet or exceed fair market share in each segment; meaning to draw a proportion of travelers in each segment equal to the national average for that type of travel.

But Durham is also making improvements to its boutique convention center with more planned, combined with 8--soon to be 10--major convention hotels. Soon Durham will offer three clusters. Two around core meeting facilities with 500 to 1,000 guest rooms respectively in a 2 to 4 block walking distance. To planners, logistics is more important than raw capacity.

It doesn’t hurt to have great assets to leverage. RTP, Duke, NCCU, and a very strong activist community are assets to Durham in drawing conventions. I’d trade that for any mega convention center in any other city. In my experience, it is service and the inherent cultural identity of a city that wins the day.

BALANCING SPECIAL INTERESTS

2008-09-02T08:45:00.007-04:00

I’ve been involved in what is called “destination marketing” nearly my entire adult life with the exception of six college years (two of which were involved in marketing a “campus community.”)

Destination marketing is by definition, “visitor centered marketing of a community for economic and cultural development while balancing the interests of visitors, businesses, other organizations and local government.”

It is the “balancing part” that is both the most challenging and often least appreciated. Of course “tourism” is “used” by many as a rationale but that doesn’t mean they really care or even understand tourism or what it means to market a community as a whole.

And then there are the businesses, organizations and facilities that are both woven into a community’s overall story and then have the opportunity to harvest the yield. I rarely run into a theater, museum, ballpark, historic site, arts group, downtown booster, convention facility, restaurant, shopping center, government official or regional or state interest that feels DCVB fully appreciates them or that we do enough for them or that they get enough of our attention.

It is natural for them to believe they play or should be given a more prominent role…it is also natural for those of us truly involved in weaving and telling the overall community story to worry that the story might be undermined by fragmentation or event cannibalization.

Balancing interests, indeed.

EVENT CANNIBALIZATION

2008-08-30T10:00:00.005-04:00

We have a dilemma in our community. On the upside, we have more signature festivals and events than communities much larger. We’re also fortunate they have earned national reputations and leverage the Durham brand.

There are some members of our community though, who are intrigued with securing more and more events. I don’t think it is that they don’t value the events we have. They just don’t realize how fragile festivals are.

You see, festivals compete. Not with one another as much as they compete for time slots, underwriting and sponsorship, volunteers, locations, media attention and audience with all of the other leisure options both residents and visitors have here.

What Durham needs to do is worry more about how to make existing festivals and events sustainable, not recruiting new ones. A lot of communities have generic events…or events so ubiquitous that they don’t add to a community’s distinctiveness.

My opinion and the opinion of the Durham Convention & Visitors Bureau is that as a community we need to focus on retaining and making our existing events better as well as protecting them as much as possible from the events from the United States of Generica.

DAMNED BY FAINT PRAISE – HELL NO--INVISIBLE!

2008-08-28T09:05:00.009-04:00

Maps like this are why so many people are confused about the location of Research Triangle Park. This world class business park for research and development is located 4 miles from Downtown Durham, nestled in SE Durham County and encompassed on three sides by the City of Durham.

Yet this map places it only in the Southeastern United States. Durham isn’t even on the map but Raleigh, two towns away from RTP, is shown, giving the impression the Park is in Raleigh.

It isn’t one of those things like they only had room for the large cities. Winston-Salem, a city smaller than Durham in the last census is on the map, but not Durham.

It isn’t done to intentionally slight Durham, but the result is the same. No wonder people get confused. More to come…

ARE WE STILL IN HIGH SCHOOL?

2008-08-28T08:50:00.021-04:00

I’ve noted before that a friend of mine once told me that “politics is personal, not logical.” And maybe that’s what the news media has become. I know reporters always seem more interested in the anecdotal than generalizable. That’s why it only takes one comment now on a blog or listserv to spawn a news story, e.g. “activists are concerned.”

But have you listened to the news coverage of the Democratic National Convention? It’s just like high school. “She really doesn’t like him!” “She was ambiguous.” “She didn’t apologize.” “She raised money for him but he didn’t for her.” “Inside sources tell me...”

All that’s missing is “he hurt her feelings.” Geezzz! Isn’t there something on which to report that is more substantive than that? And whatever happened to verifying fact? No wonder politics is personal.

AN ECONOMIC PLAN FOR CIVIL RIGHTS

2008-08-26T09:34:00.011-04:00

A hundred years ago, two African American gentleman with differing viewpoints spawned two different movements to achieve racial equality. They were both frequent visitors to Durham.

The two leaders, of course, were Booker T. Washington and W.E.B. Dubois. One argued for equality through economic development and the other through social change. From reports at the time, it seemed they didn’t always get along and people seemed to take sides on the issues. But one thing was clear: there was a tolerance of ideas, debate and public discourse evident then.

In Durham, at the dawn of the 1900’s a group of African American leaders appear to have fused a both/and approach adapting parts of both movements. It was then that Black Wall Street was spawned, the Sit-In Movement took root in the basements of Durham churches, and organizations like the Durham Committee on the Affairs of Black People were formed.

Sometimes it is hard to tell if that same tolerance for ideas or fusion of ideas still exists across the United States. I remember the puzzling and seemingly intolerant reaction to Dr. Shelby Steele’s The Content of Our Character and his more recent book, White Guilt. And similarly to Bill Cosby’s 2005 speech at Howard University.

I’m now reading a new book recommended by friend and colleague Bill Geist, written by one of his former Board members, Dr. John Yancy Odom. It is very insightful and full of useful ideas that I’ll leave for you to read for yourself.

But I wonder if his Saving Black America; An Economic Plan for Civil Rights will receive the same response as Dr. Steele’s books or if the inspiration of Presidential Candidate Barack Obama will lead us back to the positive and open debate about racial equality that Washington and Dubois had.

CULTURAL COST/BENEFIT DESERVES THE SAME STANDARD APPLIED TO AMERICAN TOBACCO

2008-08-22T08:04:00.002-04:00

When Tom Bonfield (new Durham City Manager) and I got a chance for extended conversation during his first week on the job, we touched on something I’ve mentioned before. I got the impression he agreed and will take it into consideration.

Currently, when local government annually reports the performance of a cultural facility or event, a very narrow definition of cost and revenue is reported. Even though these quality of life facilities were never intended to pay for themselves, it minimized their impact to not show revenue leveraged by more than the revenues generated inside the facility.

When local government invests in a public/private venture like adaptive reuse of the huge American Tobacco Complex, it takes a what appears to be a much better approach and compares not only revenue specific to the three parking decks or the Ballpark or soon the new theater but also the spending and property taxes leveraged by ATC’s increased value and those investments, public and private.

To me, it has makes sense to treat cultural facilities the same way. The sales tax alone generated by visitor spending surrounding use of the Civic Center or Museum of Life or Science or Carolina Theater or Full Frame Documentary Film Festival, is far greater than what is spent just inside the facility or event. Not to mention the increase they spur in surrounding property values.

When DCVB analyzes these facilities, the full impact of the facility on generating tax revenues is applied, not just the revenue generated at the door. We hope we can work with City and County officials to apply a consistent standard.

UTILITY & PITFALLS OF ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSES

2008-08-15T15:39:00.026-04:00

DCVB has Global Insight periodically quantify the impact of visitors on Durham. In July a panel at a conference discussed an article in the Journal of Travel Research entitled, "Economic Impact Studies; Instruments for Policitical Shenanigans."

I've distilled out below some points maded in the article along with some comments by Ken McGill, an EVP for Global Insight:

Six Reasons Economic Impact Studies are Best Practice:

Assessing return on investment (ROI) from tourism promotion and infrastructure investment.
Monitoring and benchmarking performance vs. destination competitors.
Setting priorities for economic development and infrastructure.
Determining whether concession or sponsorship requests for events/attractions/meetings are worth it.
Informing public policy decisions including those involving tax burdens.
Informing and reporting to residents and other stakeholders.

Analysis like this also informs answers to these 5 questions:

Is the community spending enough on both tourism promotion and infrastructure and do revenues generated cover costs?
Which are best economic development targets and are concessions worth it?
What is the ROI on public tourism capital investment and government support?
How can we benchmark against destination competitors?
How is the full value of tourism communicated to policy makers, businesses and residents?

Pitfalls to Avoid:

Including resident spending in the impact.
A sponsor that shops for a study that will confirm what they want to hear.
Multipliers being used without netting out leakage.
Vendors who never tell communities what they don’t want to hear.
Communities or developers that hide studies supporting the other side of the story.

CLARIFICATION OF “REGRESSIVE” AS APPLIED TO TAXATION

2008-08-15T14:23:00.011-04:00

An economist posted the following on the Bull City Rising blog. It is an excellent clarification of a term that is used loosely by lay folks:

I'm not taking a side on whether the prepared meal tax is a good idea or not. But as an economist who studies poverty and inequality, I was surprised to see the tax described as regressive.

A regressive tax is one in which lower-income people pay a higher proportion of their income towards the tax than do higher income people. According to the Consumer Expenditures Survey, households in the bottom quintile of the income distribution (who average $9,974 in income) spend 5.2% of their income on "food away from home" (the CEX category that approximates "prepared meals"). The next quintile (average income: $26k) spends 5.5%. The third quintile (average income: $45k) spends 5.8%, and the fourth quintile (average income $71k) spends 5.9%. For the highest-income 20% (average income $151k), the percent drops back down to 5.4%, but is still above the percent of income spent by the poorest group. You can see the numbers here: http://www.bls.gov/cex/2006/share/quintile.pdf

So by the traditional definition, this is a--slightly--progressive tax. Of course, exempting the first $8 of the meal, as someone suggested, would certainly make it more progressive.

The other question I was curious about is, how progressive is this tax compared to the other main means of revenue-raising in Durham, the property tax? A look at the same table, on the line for "housing expenditures," reveals the following [note that economists believe that renters also pay property tax, because landlords raise rents proportionally when property taxes rise]:

Bottom quintile: 39.8%; second quintile: 36.3%; third quintile: 34.3%; fourth quintile: 33.1%; top quintile: 31.9%.

Since the share of income spent on housing falls dramatically with income, while the share spent on food away from home rises slightly, a prepared food tax is significantly more progressive than a property tax. (It's also much more progressive than an overall sales tax, which is highly regressive.)

None of this is to say that the proposed tax in this case is a good or bad idea--but it's not regressive, either absolutely or in comparison to other means at Durham's disposal for revenue-raising.

Post to Bull City Rising Blog

NEGATIVE WORD OF MOUTH

2008-08-11T08:39:00.011-04:00

A journalist down the road in Raleigh jumped all over me once for using the term “virulent” to describe a small part of the population there and in other surrounding communities who drive negative word of mouth (NWOM) about Durham.

vir·u·lent (vîr y -l nt, vîr -)

2.Bitterly hostile or antagonistic; hateful: virulent criticism. See Synonyms at poisonous.

3. Intensely irritating, obnoxious, or harsh.

But I’m hardly the first person to use the term in regard to NWOM or for that matter, word of mouth in general.

For years we’ve been tracking the origins of an underlying current of negativity about Durham reported by both visitors and newcomers.

First, surveys were used to rule out Durham residents as the source or genesis of the negativity.

We’ve also confirmed that while reports of the negativity are widespread, it is actually fueled by a relatively small, 10-12%, of the adult population.

Early on our collaborator, Catevo Group, ruled out the news media as the source, explaining that “while journalists are exposed to the same negativity in their every-day lives, and it may seep into content through tone or headlines, members of the media are more often victimized or contaminated than they are the source.
We also learned early on that no amount of advertising can “out-gun” the power of negative word of mouth. It takes a far more intricate and sophisticated approach of playing up positives while empowering people who are positive with information to confront water-cooler fables. This presents what blogger Gordon Hotchkiss calls a moral hazard and that is the biggest inhibition to negative word of mouth…risk of looking stupid.

NWOM artists want to be seen as “in the know” and they appeal as Hotchkiss blogged late last year in Out of My Gord, to “the darker side of nature of human nature 0f building oneself up at the expense of others.”
We’ve isolated the population who are “carriers” and volunteer negativity about Durham around the “water cooler” and to visitors and newcomers. Research reveals both the carriers and the sources are largely located in nearby communities and the origin seems internal because so many people commute from those communities to Durham to work.
Finally, we’ve narrowed the carriers down to slightly more than 1 to 1.5 out of every 10 adults. They are the ones you read gratuitously trashing Durham online with comments at the end of news stories or in blogs and in chat rooms.

Amazing how much economic damage so few people can wreak.

DOUBLE STANDARD CAN SUBTLY UNDERMINE A COMMUNITY'S IMAGE AND IDENTITY

2008-08-11T08:06:00.007-04:00

Coverage of this story involving Durham by two news outlets based in nearby Raleigh, NC provides a perfect example of what I mean by imbalance.

Both stories cover the same topic and both are technically accurate. Both written by good reporters. But one reveals the Durham MSA has surpassed the Raleigh-Cary MSA and the other skits that observation by focusing attention only Raleigh-Cary’s percentage of growth. percentage.

http://localtechwire.com/business/local_tech_wire/news/story/3345138/

http://www.newsobserver.com/business/story/1169137.html

Of course you may be wondering if perhaps the one outlet tended to always cover stories about rankings that way. But if you check out this story from the same paper a week earlier you’ll see that’s not the case. http://www.newsobserver.com/news/wake/raleigh/story/1156398.html

Not only is the Raleigh ranking heralded in both headline and stories, this reporter took some things I was saying about Durham’s rankings (such as the statement I made about feelings of superiority leading to complacency) and used them out of context as if I somehow was bitter that Raleigh had received recognition.

The reporter also failed to correct my revelation to him that the early ‘90’s ranking he attributes to Raleigh was really one given to 6 counties and more than a dozen cities and towns including Durham. Maybe he missed that point or maybe an editor thought it muddied the story.

My only beef is that had the story been troubling, it would have emphasized Durham as the location while skirting or generalizing the location if Raleigh was the location such as the troubling event such as happened recently with coverage of a huge gang riot at a mall there. Just compare that to coverage of events at malls in Durham where attribution is not only specific to Durham but repeated.

We’ve consistently been told by the Raleigh paper, repeated by the Raleigh AP office that by policy they seldom acknowledge the location of very positive stories emanating from SE Durham, the location of Research Triangle Park. They claim these are “regional stories.” They may be regional, state, national or international in interest, but the fact is they occur in Durham.

Can you can imagine the outcry if Durham began referring to the “State Capital" separate from Raleigh just because it has “regional or state” significance?

All any community can ask is that attribution be consistent and accurate and the standards applied equally from community to community, regardless of whether the content of a story is positive or troubling.

WHEN COMMUNITY BRANDS FAIL

2008-07-25T14:55:00.002-04:00

There are two sure-fire signals a new community brand signature isn’t going to work. And they both involve residents or local stakeholders more than external audiences.

One is when the universal “peanut gallery” reaction (e.g., my baby sister can draw one better than that) fuels on itself rather than subsides. The other is when no one says anything at all, e.g., it just doesn’t resonate…it isn’t memorable.

With all of the scientific research tools available, it still comes down to that one word…resonate. If after deployment, it doesn’t resonate with stakeholders who live and breathe a community and deliver on the brand day in and day out, you’re in big trouble but have lots of company.

It is natural that brand signatures have to grow on you. It’s change, and folks typically don’t jump up and down in excitement about change, except in the current election. But if in a short time a brand signature doesn’t start to grow on people, it’s DOA.

But a real sign things are going in the right direction is 1) when organizations and individuals in your community want to link to it or use it and 2) when community leaders and news editors begin to cite it.

Most people make the mistake of believing a brand is the art work. Actually a signature is just a highly distilled way to remind people of the brand or bring it to their attention.

Saying the signature is the same as a brand is like saying your new hair cut defines your personality. Nope, at least not for long.

Durham gets a lot of credit for 1) attempting not only to distill a brand but an infinitely more complex overarching brand, one that will give all messengers a common voice and 2) introducing a lot of science into the process at least into destination community brands.

But we’re also very, very fortunate that less than two years since deployment that community leaders are regularly using it in conversation and speeches, more than 300 businesses, organizations and individuals are showcasing it, surveys confirm it already has recognition and acceptance by 80% of residents and finally, it made its way onto the editorial pages, the toughest group of all.

ODD COUPLE – SUPPLY AND DEMAND

2008-07-24T16:28:00.004-04:00

Supply and demand has never been as simple as it was in those micro/macro economics classes in college. It is true that for the most part supply follows demand.

But there are instances where small shifts in demand follow changes in supply. I don’t mean the inscrutable world of oil prices right now where the principles of supply and demand and price seem disconnected.

I’m also not referring to the overly simplistic “build it and they will come” crowd responsible for so much overbuilding and churn.

I’m talking more about what I learned years ago when airlines were regulated. People in my position worked with airlines and community leaders to secure new routes between city pairs from the Federal Government. I learned something then from an airline executive that I assume is true.

When a new carrier is added to a city pair, even though the existing carrier may be flying that route at far less than capacity, there will be a small increase in the number of people flying the route, regardless of fare changes.

Still, it’s a little puzzling that additional people would jump on a plane at the same fare, just because more seats were available. Some of it brand related, e.g. airline preferences. Some related to more exposure to the fact the route existed at all which includes destination marketing, etc.

Now friend and fellow blogger Bill Geist reports on a PKF analysis that predicts that if the 10% announced reduction in airline seats becomes a reality, it will also cause a 3.9% decrease in hotel occupancies. I haven’t read the report but I can imagine it is due to more sell outs, the hassles that come with a full flight, higher fares as seats because scarce and a shift of leisure travelers in particular to other forms of transportation.

As Bill notes, we’re in for a bumpy ride when it will seem as it does with the price of oil, that no one is piloting the plane.

ADF IS WORTH ITS WEIGHT IN GOLD

2008-07-23T14:36:00.004-04:00

We’re spoiled in Durham. Sure we have to work extra hard to overcome the underlying current of negativity driven by some negative word of mouth artists in nearby communities and counties.

But my theory is a lot of that negativity is sheer envy with a little intolerance mixed in, and a dash of ignorance. Durham has arguably more going for it than any place in this State and for its size nationwide.

Look at the accolades for proof…community as a whole, healthcare facilities and practitioners, universities, research parks, musicians, hotels, dancers, museums, restaurants, historic preservation…the list is overwhelming.

Leveraging them as part of telling the Durham story is an obvious “must.” But there needs to be more. We need to find ways to help these things continue to thrive and reach new levels of excellence.

Some of them can’t relocate but some can. We can’t take any of them for granted, let alone assume excellence is guaranteed. Gems like ADF can disappear in a heartbeat, as can Full Frame Documentary Film Festival to name just two. Putting on a festival like these is a full time job for scores of people. Durham needs to make it easier for them to secure sponsorship.

The payoff when told as part of the Durham story is publicity like this article in the New York Times, one of several during the season.

Pure gold!

The Big 2-0

2008-07-22T08:52:00.005-04:00

In five months the Durham Convention & Visitors Bureau will turn 20. The governing board commenced January 17, 1989 when the late H.C. Cranford called the meeting to order and then began to search to find me as Chief Executive. This anniversary will particularly be meaningful and fun to celebrate.

Durham commenced destination marketing an average of 20 to 30 years later than its competition. But several strategies have helped us close some of the gaps in what they call “share of mind.”

One was aggressively deploying technology. Another was deploying research driven decisions and a wide range of performance measures right from the get-go. And maybe most important, adopting the credo of “continuing and never-ending improvement” and innovation.

We’re hard on ourselves at DCVB and that’s part of the culture…but I can tell you we’ll come up for air and do some celebrating when DCVB turns 20.